Jacobson repeated some outlandish claims he published last year, that air pollution from E85 would kill people - in the Los Angeles of the future. Sound like science fiction? To me, it sounds like more fiction than science, and I was astounded that a visiting professor with such impressive-sounding credentials would offer cherry-picked, tortured data to support his study on E85 and mortality rates.In his studies, which are entirely based on computer modeling using data he selected - no actual vehicle emissions were measured or tested - Jacobson “writes the rules” even as he plays the game. He first selected the emissions studies that best fit his hypothesis, then told the computer to convert every gasoline vehicle in Los Angeles to cars using only E85 fuel, plugged in predicted weather/climate patterns 14 years in the future (14 years? - predicting tomorrow’s weather is tough enough) and predicted how many people will die or become ill in 2020, based on direct causation ties to ground-level pollution based on today’s emergency room visits/mortality rates.

Moffitt also sought to connect Jacobson’s anti-ethanol message into greater University-wide effort to discredit corn-based ethanol and other biofuels and pushes a line that University president Robert Bruininks has responded to before.

No doubt some people will view Jacobson’s guest lecture as part of an intentional effort by the University to discredit alternative fuels made from crops like corn and soybeans. I hope this is not true, but there is no debate that a number of controversial studies criticizing biofuels have been coming out of the University of lately - a trend that is raising eyebrows and ire across the state and nation. At least one major farm group has already threatened to withhold more than $1 million dollars in research funding because they feel that these data and research are not being presented fairly.

Some may wonder why the communications director of ALAMN is taking such a strong position against an academic researcher combating air pollution. The American Lung Association of Minnestoa has a public/private partnership called Clean Air Choice Team, which has been a leading advocate of ethanol and other biofuels in Minnesota and throughout the nation. Moffitt says the team currently consists of the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Cities, Minnesota Department of Commerce Energy Division, Minnesota Department of Agriculture, National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition, Minnesota Corn Growers Association, Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, General Motors Corporation and the American Lung Association of Minnesota with assistance over the years by Flint Hills Resources, Chippewa Valley Ethanol Company, the AgStar Foundation, Ford Motor Company and the Minnesota Office of Environmental Assistance (now part of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency).Prof. Jacobson responded to Moffitt with his own opinion piece in Monday’s Daily and obviously understands the connection. Jacobson accused Moffitt of making inaccurate statements about his published research and subsequently takes ALAMN’s Clean Air Choice program to task:

Although it has been about a year since the paper was published, no peer-reviewed paper has challenged the results. The only challenges have come from advocates, such as Moffitt, and those with a financial interest in ethanol, such as the Renewable Fuels Association and venture capitalists, but not scientists. It should also be noted that the American Lung Association of the Upper Midwest, who Moffitt represents, does not represent other American Lung Association branches, who have not acted as advocates of E85 to nearly the same extent. The ALAUM Web site in fact misinforms the public about E85. It states, for example, that “E85 can reduce tailpipe emissions such as ozone-forming pollutants by about 20 percent.” This is incorrect, as E85 increases organic gas emissions in nearly all known studies to date and the nitrogen oxide reductions due to E85 increase ozone in most polluted cities of the United States.Further, the study I did is still the only published study worldwide to date to examine the effects of E85 on outdoor ozone in the United States, and the results of my study do not draw this conclusion. As such, ALAUM is making estimates it has no ability to make. Finally, it states that “a typical FFV driver can prevent 4 tons of lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions … with E85 …” All of the latest scientific studies on the lifecycle of E85 versus gasoline show that there is no carbon benefit of most forms of ethanol. A detailed explanation of the recent research is summarized for the general audience in a cover story in Time Magazine. It is time Moffitt and other advocates provide the public with accurate information about the air they should be protecting.

In an interview with the Minnesota Monitor, Moffitt stated that ALAMN “has never suggested that these fuels were perfect, or that E85 or biodiesel were the sole solution to air pollution, or a ‘magic bullet’ that might make Minnesota independent of imported petroleum overnight. We do say that these fuels are cleaner-burning and less polluting than traditional petroleum fuels, and we strongly recommend that Minnesotans who drive one of the estimated 175,000 flex-fuel vehicles already on the state roads use E85 instead of gasoline.”When asked why individuals should believe ALAMN and its business alliance over the University of Minnesota or a Stanford professor, Moffitt noted that ALAMN is not alone in questioning recently publicized studies and reports critical of biofuels, including some published by the University of Minnesota. “Others include the U.S. Department of Energy, Argonne National Lab, National Renewable Energy Lab, Oak Ridge National Lab, Pacific National Lab and the U.S. Department of Agriculture,” according to Moffit.

A video of Jacobson’s presentation and a copy of his handouts are available online.

Critical Mass is a loosely organized bicyclist advocacy group which plans monthly events where cyclists ride through the streets en masse. Several hundred cyclists participated were met by forty-eight officers from six different law enforcement agencies during the fateful ride that resulted in the arrest of 19 people, including three minors and one on-looker.

ATK, formerly known as Alliant Technology Systems, won unwelcome headlines following its January acquisition of two divisions of the Canadian defense firm MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates. As Minnesota Monitor reported Monday, ATK’s purchase prompted the resignation of two MDA engineers, one of whom charged that ATK munitions “kill civilians and soldiers indiscriminately.” ATK subsequently responded that it only supplies treaty-compliant weapon systems to NATO and allied countries, subject to U.S. government approval.

At the heart of the controversy is an ATK-manufactured bomblet known as the M85. Packed in missiles and dropped on military targets, the M85 bomblets wreak destruction over a much wider territory than conventional munitions. And because some portion of the missiles’ multi-cluster bomb payload fails to detonate on impact, they can go on causing civilian casualties after combat is over.

“Indiscriminate weapons” like the M85 and have been banned by 156 countries, including Canada — though not the United States — under the terms of the 1999 anti-landmine treaty known as the Ottawa Convention. In response, manufacturers have sought to preserve the market for such devices by equipping them with de-activation capabilities. The latest version of the M85, which was developed by an Israeli firm and licensed to ATK, is equipped with a Self-Destruct Fuse (SDF) that combines a highly sensitive trigger with a safety mechanism preventing it from being manually armed. The SDF-equipped M85 was used by British forces in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and by the Israeli military during the 2006 war against the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

Hezbollah itself has been accused of war crimes by Human Rights Watch for firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel during the Lebanon War. But while the Katyusha was developed in post-World War II Soviet Russia, the SDF-equipped M85 was designed to be a more humanitarian munition.

ATK states the SDF-equipped M85 has a proven failure rate of less than 1 percent, which would preclude it from being considered an “indiscriminate weapon.” But opponents argue that those figures come from controlled testing and that the intricacies of actual ground warfare dramatically increase the failure rate.
Chris Clark, UN program manager for the Mine Action Program in southern Lebanon, reported to the International Committee of the Red Cross that in a survey of the 144,049 individual submunitions identified as of April 2007 in Lebanon, 6 percent were M85s — both with the self-destruct mechanism and without.”Whilst several military users maintain that the M85 with self-destruct mechanism has a failure rate of less than 1 percent, the evidence on the ground in South Lebanon clearly shows that this weapon has a reality failure rate of between 5 and 10 percent,” Clark reported. “It is common to find at least 3 unexploded submunition grenades from individual carrier shells equating to a 6 percent failure rate, whilst the M85 without self-destruct mechanism is common to be found with a 15 percent failure rate on the ground. Regardless of the actual failure rate figure for this weapon it is most definitely higher than the less than 1 percent figure doggedly quoted by military users and manufacturer/designers.”A second study conducted in 2007 by a British bomb disposal expert and Norwegian defense analysts found that while the M-85 was “designed with care,” the report concluded, “it still has a substantial failure rate in actual combat.”

In a report released just this past Sunday, Human Rights Watch charged that a wide variety of submunitions left by Israeli Defense Forces in Lebanon, the majority of them not equipped with SDF mechanisms, “have killed and maimed almost 200 people since the war ended.”

Despite the evidence that SDF-equipped M85 munitions have a failure rate much higher than the purported fraction of a percent, they are currently used by coalition forces in Iraq.

ATK has not responded to Minnesota Monitor inquiries at the time of publication.

The satellite may be visible to the naked eye directly overhead tonight at 6:43 p.m. and in the western skies Wednesday at 6:35 p.m. There is a chance it will be visible on the western horizon on Thursday, but only if we’re off target. Slashdot is reporting that the shoot-down may occur over the Pacific at approximately 9:30 p.m. Wednesday, in the midst of the lunar eclipse. ]]> Tom Elko http://skybluewaters.org/blog1/2008/02/18/midwest-refineries-will-pump-out-more-polution/ 2008-02-18T21:00:41Z 2008-02-18T21:00:41Z Mixed Greens

The Chicago Tribune reports that pollution from Midwest oil refineries could increase 40% over the next decade due in part to several refineries undergoing major expansions. The increased capacity is needed to refine the  increased supply of crude piped in from Canada’s Athabascan oil sands.Minnesota’s Pine Bend Refinery is undergoing a $100 million expansion to increase capacity to 330,000 barrels per day. Murphy Oil in Superior, Wisconsin is in the process of expanding capacity by 700%.

[Via]

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